Treasury: rebased GDP lowers debt peak to 74.6% of GDP, trims deficit to 3.5%

National Treasury says the revised GDP figures from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) improve the country's key fiscal ratios, lowering the projected peak in government debt as a share of the economy. It describes the change as a mechanical adjustment, not a change in the government's finances.

The statement follows Stats SA's rebasing and benchmarking of the national accounts, announced on 29 October. Treasury says the exercise raised the measured level of nominal GDP by 5.1%, or R393 billion.

What changes

Treasury compared the revised ratios with those in the 2026 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS):

• Debt now peaks at 74.6% of GDP in 2025/26, down from 78.4% in the MTBPS.
• Debt falls below 70% of GDP by 2032/33, a year earlier than the MTBPS projected.
• The 2026/27 main budget deficit is 3.5% of GDP, down from 3.7%.
• The 2026/27 primary surplus is 1.6% of GDP, down from 1.7%, and the 2029/30 primary surplus is 2.8%, down from 2.9%.

Treasury says the consolidated budget deficit improves by an average of 0.2 percentage points of GDP over the current year and the medium term. The main budget primary surplus is revised down by an average of 0.1 percentage points.

What does not change

Treasury stresses that the revised ratios do not change government revenue, spending or debt projections. A larger GDP makes the same rand amounts smaller as a share of the economy. National Treasury Director-General Duncan Pieterse said: "Our updated calculations confirm that government continues to achieve its fiscal targets."

Treasury also noted: "Historically, Stats SA's five-yearly benchmarking exercises have often increased the estimated size of the economy."

What Stats SA says

Stats SA has said the overhaul moves the base year from 2010 to 2015 and revises the series back to 1993. It says the economy was 11.0% larger in 2020 than previously estimated, and that education and health activities have been reclassified from general government to personal services. It also says debt-to-GDP will be smaller, with trends largely unchanged. Stats SA and Treasury measure different things, so the 11.0% and 5.1% figures are not directly comparable.

What to watch

Treasury says the 2027 Budget will provide updated economic forecasts and fiscal projections. The Reserve Bank's rate decision is scheduled for 19 November.