Developing story: this follows our earlier reports on the United States decision to end South Africa’s AGOA access. The figures below are as stated by the officials and analysts named and have not been independently verified.

Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau says the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) matters to South Africa but is far from the whole of its economic relationship with the United States, as the window to reverse Washington’s decision runs towards early January.

The minister’s numbers

“Agoa remains important to South Africa, but it does not constitute the totality of the economic relationship between South Africa and the US,” Tau said.

He said about 10% of South Africa’s exports to the US entered under AGOA in 2025, down from 28% in 2024. According to the figures attributed to him, AGOA exports were about $1.7 billion in 2025, down from $4 billion in 2024, and about 1% of South Africa’s total exports worldwide.

Can the decision be reversed?

Analysts quoted this week are divided. Elizabeth Sidiropoulos of the South African Institute of International Affairs said AGOA is a law, but eligibility is the US president’s decision, so an appeal is unlikely to succeed. Joshua Meservey of the Hudson Institute said Congress created AGOA but the president has the final say on eligibility.

Bob Wekesa of Wits University argued that South Africa has at least a credible chance of using a shift in the balance of power in Washington to have the decision rescinded. US Representative Gregory Meeks and Senator Jeanne Shaheen issued a joint statement on 4 November condemning the decision and warning that it could hand China a strategic advantage.

A different route

Deputy Trade Minister John Steenhuisen suggested negotiating a conventional reciprocal free trade agreement. “Particularly for agriculture and manufacturing, you need to be able to plan. And this uncertainty is unhelpful,” he said.

What we do not yet know

The exact date the US decision took effect and the precise end of the notice period have not been confirmed against a US government notice. We also do not know whether Pretoria has formally lodged an appeal, or how the changed US political picture will play out in practice.