Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) will publish rebased and benchmarked gross domestic product (GDP) figures, along with restated provincial GDP, on Thursday 29 October. An economic calendar for the week describes it as the main data event of the week.

Stats SA rebases and benchmarks GDP every five years. The exercise can change how large the economy is measured to be and how its sectors are weighted.

What rebasing and benchmarking mean

According to Stats SA's description of the exercise, rebasing changes the reference year used for constant-price estimates in the national accounts. Benchmarking improves data, classifications and methodologies so that major structural changes in the economy are captured in GDP calculations.

The agency's stated aim is to keep GDP measurement reflective of the South African economy as it changes over time. Provincial GDP estimates will also be restated.

Why the numbers matter

GDP is the denominator in ratios such as debt to GDP, so a change in the measured level of GDP can move those ratios even if nothing else changes. In the 21 October mini-budget, Treasury cut its 2026 growth forecast to 1.2% and said debt had stabilised. We do not yet know whether or how the rebasing will alter the figures behind those statements.

Also this week: data calendar

  • Tuesday 27 October: the Reserve Bank's composite business cycle indicators for August.
  • Wednesday 28 October: Stats SA's international tourism numbers for September. Visitors rose 1.4% month on month in August, with visitors from the SADC region dominating. Stats SA also publishes a report on governance, public safety and justice.
  • Thursday 29 October: rebased GDP, and the producer price index for September, which Nedbank expects to rise to 5.3% year on year from 5% in August, driven mainly by coke and petroleum products. Stats SA also releases public sector capital expenditure and higher education financial statistics.
  • Friday 30 October: a National Treasury briefing on Operation Vulindlela's second-quarter progress report, and preliminary September trade data from SARS. August's trade surplus widened slightly to R20.5bn.

What we do not yet know

  • The size and direction of the revisions to the level of GDP and to past growth rates.
  • How far back the series will be restated.
  • The release time. The schedule comes from a published economic calendar, and we had not yet reviewed Stats SA's own release notice.
  • Whether the PPI forecast, which is one bank's estimate, will prove right.