With 28% of votes counted on Thursday, the ANC was on about 32% and the DA on 28%, according to figures from the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC).
If that share held, the ANC would finish about 14 percentage points below its 2021 local election result. The count was still at an early stage and the outcome could change significantly.
What the figures show
The early count is a snapshot, not a result. A projection by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) suggested the ANC could finish with roughly the same share it held at that point in the count.
By 7pm on Thursday the IEC results portal showed 50% of votes counted, and the commission said results for 65 of 213 municipalities were confirmed. None of Gauteng's nine municipalities had been confirmed at that stage.
What the parties and analysts say
ANC chairperson Gwede Mantashe said: "We may improve." He added that major areas, townships and other areas had not yet been counted.
DA mayoral candidate for Johannesburg Helen Zille said: "It's still early days."
Louw Nel, senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, said the ANC was performing worse than expected, adding that expectations were already low. He described 32% as the party's worst nightmare coming true.
Why the picture could still shift
Votes counted first are not necessarily representative of the whole electorate. Large urban voting districts, including Gauteng's metros, were among those still outstanding, which is why the IEC has urged caution when reading partial results.
The IEC has said verified results are anticipated on Sunday.
What we do not yet know
- The final national and metro vote shares, and how many seats each party wins.
- Whether the ANC's and DA's shares move as Gauteng and other outstanding areas are counted.
- Which coalitions, if any, will form once results are declared.
