South Africa is projected to experience around 1,200 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 as a powerful “Super El Niño” drives temperatures significantly above normal, according to new research from the Climate Impact Lab.

The figure represents excess mortality — deaths above what would be expected in a typical year — and carries an uncertainty range of roughly ±90. It places South Africa among the 50 countries expected to see the highest numbers of El Niño-linked heat deaths during this period.

The global picture
The Climate Impact Lab, a research consortium linked to the University of Chicago, estimates that the current El Niño could contribute to 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide during its first nine months (June 2026 to February 2027). Of these, approximately 239,000 are projected to occur between September and February alone.

The heaviest impacts are concentrated in the Global South. Across Africa’s Sahel region alone, researchers project 66,800 excess heat deaths over the next six months. Nigeria accounts for the largest share (about 31,400), followed by Sudan (17,500), Niger (around 10,000) and Chad (approximately 7,900–8,000). Significant numbers are also expected in parts of South-East Asia and other tropical regions.

Why this El Niño is different
Current forecasts indicate the event is intensifying and could become one of the strongest on record, comparable to the major episodes of 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16. Global land temperatures are already running well above average, and the elevated heat is expected to persist, with residual effects possibly lasting into mid-2027.

For Southern Africa, El Niño typically brings:
• Above-normal temperatures during the summer months
• A higher likelihood of below-normal rainfall over large parts of the summer rainfall region
• Increased risk of drought stress on agriculture, water resources and ecosystems
• Greater potential for heatwaves that strain electricity demand and public health systems

The South African Weather Service’s seasonal outlook already points to warmer-than-average conditions and an elevated chance of drier weather over many summer rainfall areas in the coming months.

Who is most at risk
Heat-related deaths disproportionately affect:

• The elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions
• Outdoor workers (farming, construction, informal traders)
• Residents of informal settlements with limited access to cooling or reliable electricity
• Communities with restricted access to healthcare or clean drinking water

Researchers stress that many of these deaths are preventable. Targeted interventions — early heat warnings, cooling centres, public education campaigns, workplace heat protocols, and support for vulnerable households — could significantly reduce the toll.

Call for action
The Climate Impact Lab emphasises that decision-makers now have clearer data on where and when the greatest risks will materialise. “This report allows decision-makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months,” the researchers noted.

As South Africa heads into what is expected to be a hotter and potentially drier summer, public health authorities, municipalities and employers are being urged to activate and strengthen heat-action plans without delay.

Insight Factor will continue to monitor both the short-term weather impacts of the current system and the longer-term public-health and climate consequences of this Super El Niño.