Petrol and diesel are projected to get cheaper on Wednesday 4 November, the day South Africans vote in the local government elections, according to projections based on the Central Energy Fund's final October data.

The projections credit temporary tax relief announced by National Treasury in the mid-term budget, which more than offsets the price increases the underlying data would otherwise point to. Fuel prices are set by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, and the official announcement is expected in the coming days.

What the projections show

Prices are inland, in rand per litre, comparing October levels with the projected November level.

  • Petrol 93: R29.88 to R29.39, a cut of 49c a litre.
  • Petrol 95: R30.25 to R29.92, a cut of 33c a litre.
  • Diesel (0.05% sulphur): R31.95 to R30.37, a cut of R1.58 a litre.
  • Diesel (0.005% sulphur): a projected cut of R1.68 a litre.

The projections give no figure for illuminating paraffin. We have left out a starting price for 0.005% diesel because two sources we checked give different October prices.

Why prices are expected to fall

The Central Energy Fund data show fuel importers recovering less than the cost of fuel, known as an under-recovery. For October it is projected at R1.01 a litre for petrol 93, R1.17 for petrol 95, R1.42 for diesel (0.05%) and R1.32 for diesel (0.005%). On their own, those gaps would push prices up.

Treasury's temporary relief is larger: R1.50 a litre off petrol and R3.00 off diesel, part of a R10 billion package announced in the mid-term budget. The relief is to be phased out by January 2027, according to the projections.

Early October looked very different. Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop said at the time that early Central Energy Fund data pointed to a petrol increase of about R4.60 a litre, but she cautioned that the figures were recalculated daily and might not prove as large. She said global oil prices remained above $100 a barrel.

What we do not yet know

  • The official November prices and the exact size of each change.
  • The effect of the slate levy, which the projections leave out. It rose to 87.6c a litre in October, up 4.4c, and could rise further.
  • Whether any paraffin change is expected, and what coastal prices will be.
  • Whether movements in oil and the rand before the announcement change the final numbers.