National Treasury expects to announce a fiscal anchor in the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement on 21 October, building on the credit rating upgrade it won from Fitch in June.

Fitch raised South Africa's long-term foreign and local currency ratings to BB from BB-, with a stable outlook, according to Treasury. Treasury said it was Fitch's first upgrade of South Africa in almost 21 years.

What Fitch and Treasury said

Treasury said Fitch cited disciplined fiscal management and progress on consolidation, a shift from primary deficits to widening primary surpluses, signs that debt is stabilising and a debt maturity profile averaging more than ten years. Treasury said Fitch also expects reforms in energy and logistics to support growth.

Treasury Director-General Duncan Pieterse said: "for the first time in more than a decade, we are seeing a clear turnaround in the downward ratings trend." He said a fiscal anchor, which Treasury expects will be announced in the 2026 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, would embed the government's debt-stabilisation principle.

The road to investment grade

Treasury said S&P upgraded South Africa by one notch in November 2025 and that Moody's has a positive outlook. It said all three agencies now rate the country two notches below investment grade.

Johann Els, chief economist at PSG Financial Services, expects further upgrades but said agencies may wait for confirmation in the February 2027 Budget. He said South Africa could return to investment grade within two to three years.

Annabel Bishop, chief economist at Investec, said markets will focus on the debt and deficit figures and on the fiscal anchors the government has yet to announce. She warned that a debt ratio above the projected 77.3% of GDP would push up bond yields.

What we do not yet know

  • What the fiscal anchor will be: a debt ceiling, a debt target or a spending rule. Treasury has not said.
  • Whether S&P or Moody's will act before the February 2027 Budget.
  • Whether the 21 October statement will keep the deficit at 4% of GDP or show a narrower gap, as some economists expect.