Developing story: these are projections based on mid-month data, and the final adjustment can still change before it is announced.

Motorists could see petrol become cheaper and diesel more expensive in December, according to Central Energy Fund (CEF) projections that now cover most of the November pricing window.

The projections show petrol 93 falling by about 152 cents a litre and petrol 95 by about 182 cents. Diesel is projected to rise by about 149 cents a litre for the 0.05% sulphur grade and by about 115 cents for the 0.005% grade.

What the projections show

  • Petrol 93: down about R1.52 a litre, to about R27.85 inland.
  • Petrol 95: down about R1.82 a litre, to about R28.42 inland.
  • Diesel 0.05% sulphur: up about R1.49 a litre, to about R32.34 inland.
  • Diesel 0.005% sulphur: up about R1.15 a litre, to about R33.24 inland.

The projected prices are measured from November's inland prices. The inputs behind the projections include a Brent crude price of about US$85 a barrel and a rand exchange rate of about R16.39 to the US dollar at the time they were compiled.

Why diesel is rising while petrol falls

Part of the movement reflects the scaling back of temporary fuel levy relief rather than market prices alone. According to the report of the projections, relief of R3 a litre on diesel and R1.50 a litre on petrol stays in place until 1 December. From then it drops to R1.50 a litre on diesel and R1 a litre on petrol, until 5 January 2027.

Earlier CEF data for the first week of November showed the same pattern, with petrol over-recoveries and a negligible diesel under-recovery, and also reflected a reduction in the temporary relief.

When the official price will be announced

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources is expected to announce the official December adjustment closer to 2 December, according to the report of the projections. The department's announcement, not the CEF figures, sets the pump price.

What we do not yet know

  • How the remaining days of the data window will move the numbers. They could change the final adjustment.
  • The coastal prices and the exact levy changes, which the department publishes with its announcement.