DA leads Johannesburg, MK strong in Durban in election polls

A MarkData poll puts the DA on 35.0% in Johannesburg, ahead of the ANC on 21.8%, weeks before the 4 November local government elections. In Durban's eThekwini, analyst Melanie Verwoerd said MK was polling at about 44%.

Verwoerd said in a radio interview that polls are snapshots of voter intentions, not predictions, and that several big councils may again need coalitions to govern.

Johannesburg and Cape Town

MarkData surveyed 1,011 people in Johannesburg and 1,004 in Cape Town between 10 August and 14 September, mainly by telephone with some in-person interviews. The margin of error is about 3%, and MarkData modelled turnout at 48%.

Verwoerd said an ANC-DA coalition could be the most straightforward route to a stable Johannesburg government. A DA-ActionSA deal is possible but may need smaller parties, she said, pointing to the public feud between DA federal leader Helen Zille and ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba. An ANC, MK, EFF and ActionSA grouping would likely have only a narrow majority, she said.

In Cape Town, Verwoerd said two polls put the DA above 50% while an Ipsos poll put it below, and she expected the party to keep its majority unless something dramatic changed.

eThekwini and other metros

Verwoerd said MK was polling at about 44% in eThekwini, while the DA, ANC and IFP together were at about 47% and the EFF at 2% to 4%. She questioned whether MK and the ANC could overcome their differences to form a majority.

In Nelson Mandela Bay, she said the DA and ANC were each at about 37%. The DA generally performed somewhat better in Tshwane than in Johannesburg, she said, and the Freedom Front Plus could play a role. She described Ekurhuleni as similar to Johannesburg, with an ANC-DA arrangement a strong option.

Narrow councils in the Western Cape

Verwoerd said the DA held outright majorities in 9 of the province's 24 municipalities after the previous elections, with the other 15 run by coalitions.

She said the DA holds only a one-seat majority in Hessequa, Prince Albert and Swellendam, which growth by the Patriotic Alliance could threaten. Bergrivier (two seats) and Swartland (three seats) are also narrow, and in Saldanha Bay the DA is one seat short of a majority, she said.

In Laingsburg, with seven seats, the DA holds three, the ANC two, the Patriotic Alliance one and the Karoo Democratic Force one. Four are needed for a majority, she said.